Image source, REUTERS/Valentyn Ogirenko
- Author, Paul Kirby
- Role, BBC News
Ukraine knew Russia was planning a summer offensive, but not where it would start. That became clear on 10 May, as Russian forces penetrated the border area north of Ukraine’s second largest city of Kharkiv.
They have since grabbed a number of villages not far from the frontier, and are trying to push forward as Ukraine’s outgunned forces try to shore up a weakened front line.
A buffer zone or a deeper push?
By entering Vovchansk, only 5km (3 miles) inside Ukraine, and seizing large areas of Ukrainian territory in the Kharkiv region, Russian forces may be trying to create a buffer zone to fend off Ukraine’s own cross-border attacks.
Having seen the relatively poor state of Ukraine’s defences, they may also have far more ambitious plans.
Russia could be planning a further cross-border push towards the northern city of Sumy, to the north-west. Ukraine’s military spy chief, Kyrylo Budanov, believes a “small group of forces” is waiting there, ready to act.
Image source, Russian Volunteer Corps/Reuters
Sergei Shoigu, the new head of Russia’s security council, has said only that the military is advancing in all directions.
That could involve pushing deeper into Ukraine, either to force Kyiv to divert forces from the fiercest front line in the eastern Donbas or seize increasing amounts of territory.
The US-based Institute for the Study of War think tank believes the main aim is to create a buffer zone, as does Russian military analyst Anatoly Matviychuk.
But Russian forces are also pushing towards the village of Lyptsi, some 20km from the northern outskirts of Kharkiv and, in his words, “we can practically see the suburbs of Kharkiv through binoculars”. Suddenly capturing Ukraine’s second biggest city could be in Russian sights.
Is Kharkiv at risk?
With a pre-war population of 1.4 million, Kharkiv comes behind only Kyiv and Dnipro in its economic importance to Ukraine. It is too close to the border to have sufficient air defence and has repeatedly come under lethal Russian bombardment from ballistic and remodelled anti-aircraft missiles and glide bombs.
If Russia could capture it, Matviychuk says it would prove a “turning point” in the war and hit Ukraine’s industrial potential hard.
That seems highly unlikely. Ukrainian and Western commentators are convinced Russia does not have the resources to do so. If it took 80,000 Russian troops to capture the devastated eastern city of Avdiivka last February, a much bigger city like Kharkiv would require numbers that Russia does not have.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, on a visit to Kharkiv, said the situation in the region was “generally under control”, although the area remained extremely difficult.
“The strategic intention of the Russian troops is… the encirclement of Kharkiv as a regional centre,” says Oleksandr Musiienko, head of the Centre for Military and Political Studies in Kyiv.
That way, they would not only create a buffer zone of 10-15km in depth, he says, but also give Russia the option of attacking Kharkiv later.
Ukrainian military blogger Yuriy Butusov says too many mistakes were made in defending the border and, now that Russian forces have seen how thinly spread the defences are, they could try to set up both a buffer zone and a bridgehead, to launch deeper into Ukrainian territory: “Of course, this is their goal.”
Image source, ROMAN PILIPEY/AFP
Russia’s focus on the east
For many months the war has dragged on with Russian forces securing minor gains at great human cost, especially in the eastern region of Donetsk.
Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute believes the main aim of the summer offensive is “the expansion of the Russian push in Donbas”, with the aim of cutting supply lines and then giving their forces a route to both north and south.
Three months on from the capture of Avdiivka, the Russian military has set its sights on other targets in the Donetsk region further northwest, including the strategically important hilltop town of Chasiv Yar.
Rob Lee of the Foreign Policy Research Institute says Ukrainian troops who were based in Chasiv Yar are thought to have been moved to Kharkiv, leaving Ukraine with fewer units available there.
Losing Chasiv Yar would make Ukrainian cities in Donbas even more vulnerable to Russian attack.
By forcing Ukraine to commit troops, air defences and artillery to the defence of its second city, pressure would also be put on the…
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