The bond market invites more questions ahead of month-end

It’s a tough one to figure out, besides a likely technical pushback in 10-year yields at the 100-day moving average:

The fall on Friday sees yields drop a little further today as well to 4.228%, down 3 bps on the day. The surprising thing is that the dollar is still holding rather resilient for now. USD/JPY in particular is still keeping above the 150.00 mark around 150.40 currently.

For now, the 100-day moving average near 4.32% is keeping a lid on yields with downside more limited closer to 4.20%.

There are definitely some mixed flows playing out since the end of last week. And with month-end trading in focus this week, we might not get much clarity on how things might play out in the days ahead.

As such, we might have to wait until next week before getting a better sense of the market flows. Central banks will return to focus in March and we will also get the US non-farm payrolls on the second Friday of the month this time.