Paul Yeager: Welcome to the Friday, June 14th, 2024 installment of Market Plus Mark gold. Still with us? What’s the headline of the week? Because prior, you said it during the show, prior to Thursday or Friday, it was weather. Yeah. Is it still weather.
Mark Gold: A long term long term being June, July and August? Yeah, the weather is still the story. the acres are going to be whatever they are. but that’s not what’s going to the yield is going to be dependent more on the weather and production and yield as weather. So that’s going to be the big story. We sold off on Friday because it put a little bit of coolness into the temps. It put in a little bit of rain here and there, but it looks pretty dry and hot east of the Mississippi for the next couple of weeks. And then we get into the July weather when we will make a corn crop. Now, I think most guys around the country are looking pretty darn good. You can’t have a 75 rating on the corn or 74 rating. And I think this crop is in good shape. Now we expect those ratings Monday night to come down. Maybe four, maybe five percentage points. Because, you know, we’re getting into a little more real weather here.
Paul Yeager: Like weather I just did a drive to Iowa, Illinois into Wisconsin and a couple of different routes. And what corn was early looked great now, but the corn that was late planting, it’s going to struggle. I was starting to already see some some dry spots starting to show up. And I’m sure the drought monitor reversed course this week went back dry. At what point does the all of this data get fed into those trading algorithms? And they they figure that that switch flips because like Elaine said last week, we were all dry for July August and still had a great crop last year.
Mark Gold: You know, it’s funny, if you have a hot, dry July and August, you’re going to lose some yield out there. No question about it. But are you going to kill the crop? You’re still going to have 175 bushel corn. You know, you’re still going to have a big number on beans. Sure. But if you keep it dry through the first two weeks of September, now you got a major issue. We haven’t really seen that in ages. I can’t even maybe 1980 or something. It would go back a ways before we saw it back in September. But, let’s give the American farmer credit. Let’s give the seed genetics credit. You know, somebody once said they’re going to grow corn on the concrete. And, you know, one of these days we’ll be pretty close.
Paul Yeager: Well, this brings up a good question from Matt in Iowa. He had one about new crop. And that’s kind of what we’re alluding to a little bit. So he wants to know have we missed the rally window to price new crop grain.
Mark Gold: You missed an opportunity. Have you missed the whole boat? I don’t think so. You should have a scare in July. You should have a scare in August. There will be something. Maybe this Chinese buying will, get things going out here if it stays hot and dry east of the Mississippi, that’ll get things going. But as we talked about on the show, we have to pay very close attention to those stocks reports. As the American farmer, they had more grain on hand than I can remember in many, many years. Have they got a out of it or they still holding it? And that’s going to be the key to the sustainability of any bull market.
Paul Yeager: Two questions about your conspiracy theories right there about things. Let’s go Shamus in Iowa first, shall we Neal? When will the USDA come clean on South America’s numbers? And finally, tell the truth?
Mark Gold: Well, I keep wondering the same thing myself. I look at these Brazilian numbers and wonder, what are they looking at? What? You know, is, does the USDA attache no more than the boots on the ground from guys at Stone ax? We’ve got a raft of people on the ground there. And, you know, they’re saying it’s 149, or two, 2.5ft, two and a half. A million over from the USDA. I don’t think it makes any sense. they’ve been coming down very slowly, but that’s how they do things. They ratchet it down. They’re not just going to cut it under 150, but, I think they’re wrong. I think they’re really wrong on the corn carry outs. I think the usage and the export numbers were so far ahead of the USDA sales on corn right now. They’ve got to change those numbers at some point. One way they do it. I don’t know.
Paul Yeager: When’s the last time you saw a report come with dramatic numbers? I mean, Wednesday, it was pretty. It’s stair steps. Yeah. There’s just not been dramatic cuts.
Mark Gold: We haven’t seen it in a while. And, you know, that’s not what the USDA does. And, you know, love them or leave them. That’s the game we’ve got to play. let’s not forget, their mandate is to provide reasonably priced food and plenty of…
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