Recap for April 10

  • The US dollar index closed at its highest level since November Wednesday and at its highest levels in 34 years versus the Japanese yen. Behind the strength was a report indicating the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in March compared with the 0.3% increase expected by economists polled by Reuters. Year-over-year the CPI increased 3.5% versus forecasts of 3.4% growth. Excluding the volatile food and energy components, core inflation grew 0.4% month-on-month in March, compared with expectations of a 0.3% advance. Annually, it gained 3.8%, versus the estimated 3.7% increase. The hotter-than-expected inflation report caused traders to pull back on bets the Federal Reserve will enact an interest rate cut in June.
  • US stocks declined broadly Wednesday after the US inflation report. Ten of 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower in the worst day for the index since June 2022. Public Storage, American Tower, Home Depot, United Health and Microsoft were among the biggest losers. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 422.16 points, or 1.09%, to close at 38,461.51. The Standard & Poor’s 500 dipped 49.27 points, or 0.95%, to close at 5,160.64. The Nasdaq Composite shed 136.28 points, or 0.84%, to close at 16,170.36. 
  • Soybean futures set one-month lows in Wednesday’s trading and closed just above session lows amid stiff export sales competition from Brazil a day ahead of the USDA’s monthly supply-and-demand report that was expected to show 2023-24 US soybean ending stocks at 317 million bus compared with 315 million in March, and weekly export sales data in which analysts expected 2023-24 soybean sales of 200,000 to 600,000 tonnes. Corn futures advanced the day before the reports that are expected to show 2023-24 US corn ending stocks at 2.102 billion bus, down from 2.172 billion last month, and 2023-24 corn export sales of 750,000 to 1.3 million tonnes in the week ended April 4. Dryness concerns in the US Southern Plains and in the Black Sea region, plus Russia-Ukraine war effects on grain exports, served to offset a strengthening US dollar and lift US wheat futures across the board with Kansas City posting the widest gains. May corn added 3¢ to close at $4.34¼ per bu. Chicago May wheat edged up ¾¢ to close at $5.58½ per bu. Kansas City May wheat jumped 17½¢ and closed at $5.94½ per bu. Minneapolis May wheat added ½¢ and closed at $6.51¾ per bu; September 2025 and beyond declined. May soybeans were down 9¾¢ to close at $11.64¾ per bu. May soybean meal was down $4.70 to close at $330.90 per ton. May soybean oil added 0.08¢ to close at 47.60¢ a lb.
  • US crude oil prices shot up nearly a $1 per barrel Wednesday on fears Middle Eastern ceasefire talks might stall after an Israeli airstrike on Gaza killed three sons of a leader of Hamas, a designated terrorist organization. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future jumped 98¢ to close at $86.21 per barrel. 
  • US gold futures slipped from record-high levels Wednesday after the stronger-than-expected inflation report boosted the US dollar and firmed Treasury yields. The April contract fell $13.90 to close at $2,329.60 per oz.

Recap for April 9

  • Stiff competition in export markets sent soybean, corn and wheat futures mostly lower for a second day Tuesday. Traders were positioning themselves ahead of Wednesday’s US inflation report and Thursday’s US agricultural supply-and-demand report. Rainy Plains forecasts eased concerns about moisture in US hard red winter wheat areas while drier forecasts smoothed a path for corn planting. Both commodities were pressured as a result. May corn fell 4¼¢ to close at $4.31¼ per bu. Chicago May wheat deleted 8¢ to close at $5.57¾ per bu. Kansas City May wheat was down 8¢ and closed at $5.77¼ per bu. Minneapolis May wheat added 1¢ and closed at $6.51¼ per bu; all later months declined. May soybeans were down 7¢ to close at $11.74½ per bu. May soybean meal was down 40¢ to close at $335.60 per ton. May soybean oil lost 0.38¢ to close at 47.52¢ a lb.
  • US crude oil prices declined Tuesday for a second day. The May West Texas Intermediate light, sweet crude future dropped $1.20 to close at $85.23 per barrel. 
  • US equity markets were mixed for a second day ahead of fresh inflation data coming Wednesday. Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected the report to show consumer prices rose 3.4% in March from a year earlier, up from a 3.2% rate in February. The February and January reports each indicated inflation had been hotter than anticipated. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 9.13 points, or 0.02%, to close at 38,883.67. The Standard & Poor’s 500 added 7.52 points, or 0.14%,…