ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: BOJ Gov Ueda spoke, USD/JPY gained

• China Commerce Min to assist firms expand imports amid efforts to boost domestic demand
• China’s Two Sessions 2024: Economic Strategy awaited
• Grayscale says not enough bitcoin to accommodate all the new demand, and so prices higher
• Federal Reserve speakers on Friday include Barkin, Waller, Logan, Bostic, Daly, Schmid
• Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill is speaking on Friday
• China Caixin Manufacturing PMI for February 50.9 (expected 50.6)
• China February Manufacturing PMI 49.1 (expected 49.1)
• Fed’s Williams says the current business cycle is not a normal one
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1059 (vs. estimate at 7.2011)
• US Senate bill to prevent partial government shutdown secures enough votes to pass
• Japan Manufacturing PMI in Freefall: Deepest Contraction in Two Years
• RBNZ Governor Orr says inflation is still too high but is falling
• Reviving China’s Economy: UBS Recommendations Unveiled
• JP Morgan analysts project Bitcoin/USD price will drop to $42,000 after halving
• Japan’s January Unemployment Rate 2.4% (vs. expected 2.4%)
• JP Morgan says Wednesday (Feb 28) was the biggest day for net inflows to bitcoin ETFs
• Bank of America looking for a summer S&P 500 rally, eyeing towards 5,600
• G20 says prospect of global economic soft landing has increased
• Australian Manufacturing PMI for February stays in contraction at 47.8 (prior 50.1)
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 29 Feb: Core PCE not so scary. Nasdaq record high close.
• RBNZ dep gov Hawkesby: policy is going to stay restrictive for some time yet
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says inflation is dropping back at a rapid pace
• NASDAQ index closes at an all-time record high. Highest close since November 2021
• Japan’s Kanda comments on the wires – on geopolitics, not on Japan monetary policy or yen
• New Zealand January building permits -8.8% m/m (prior +3.7%)
• Trade ideas thread – Friday, 1 March, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

The
yen weakened through the session. USD/JPY moved from lows just under
150.00 to a high circa 150.40. We had comments from Bank of Japan
Governor Ueda, speaking at a news conference after attending the G20
finance leaders’ meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The comment of note
was that its still too early to conclude that inflation was close to
sustainably meeting the BOJ’s 2% inflation target. Ueda said once
again that he’d need to see the outcome of wage negotiations
currently taking place, for confirmation of a positive wage-inflation
cycle. USD/JPY
took its directional cue from Ueda and ticked higher throughout the
session. Its currently sitting on the high as I update.

ICYMI,
wage
talks
are expected to conclude on March 13, ahead of the next BOJ policy
meeting on March 18 and 19.

The
other focal point for the day were February PMI data points from
China. We had official PMIs from the National Bureau of Statistics
(NBS) and also the privately surveyed Manufacturing PMI from
Caixin/S&P Global:

• The
  official Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.1, in contraction for a
  fifth consecutive month, from January’s 49.2
• Caixin
  came in at 50.9, from 50.8 in January

There
may well be distortions in the figures due to the week-long Lunar New
Year holidays during February. Factories shut during this holiday.
Nevertheless, the poor showing from the official figures fit with the
overall view of malaise in China’s manufacturing sector with poor
demand and property sector debt overhang key negatives.

In
the points above you’ll find a post on China’s annual ‘Two Sessions’
which will set policy priorities for the year ahead. We’ll get most
of the results from these on March 11 and some guidance on what
Chinese authorities will be doing, and not doing, to boost the
economy.

Apart
from USD/JPY the USD lost a little ground here. EUR, GBP (barely),
AUD all added a few tics.