Filippo Berio Exec Forecasts Production Rebound, Falling Prices

Dusan Kaljevic feels bull­ish as promis­ing olive har­vests get under­way across the Mediterranean basin, and prices at ori­gin are antic­i­pated to drop.

“We are look­ing at 3.2, maybe 3.3 mil­lion met­ric tons glob­ally,” the Filippo Berio North America chief exec­u­tive told Olive Oil Times. ​“That’s an impor­tant num­ber.”

The 2024/25 crop year is expected to be the first ​“nor­mal” har­vest since 2021/22, when pro­duc­tion reached 3.4 mil­lion tons.

In the two inter­ven­ing crop years, pro­duc­tion dropped to 2.6 and 2.4 mil­lion tons, respec­tively; con­sec­u­tive years of high spring tem­per­a­tures and drought yielded the low­est har­vests in nearly a decade.

Spain is the hub of global olive oil pro­duc­tion, and Kaljevic antic­i­pates pro­duc­tion reach­ing 1.5 mil­lion tons, ​“twice as high as the lat­est two har­vests.”

“Winter was ideal for olive oil incu­ba­tion,” he said, with plenty of rain and mod­er­ate tem­per­a­tures. ​“That should be a big relief for the entire indus­try.”

See Also:2024 Harvest Updates

Along with Spain, pro­duc­ers in Turkey and Tunisia are also expect­ing sig­nif­i­cant pro­duc­tion rebounds.

Kaljevic esti­mates Tunisia will pro­duce about 300,000 tons, 36 per­cent above last year and 56,000 tons more than the five-year aver­age.

In Turkey, pro­duc­tion is expected to climb to about 350,000 tons, exceed­ing last year’s yield of 180,000 tons and 39 per­cent above the five-year aver­age.

Kaljevic attrib­uted the pro­duc­tion increases in both coun­tries to a com­bi­na­tion of bet­ter weather than the pre­vi­ous har­vest, new trees enter­ing matu­rity and many groves enter­ing an ​‘on-year’ in the olive trees’ nat­ural alter­nate bear­ing cycle.

“There are huge incen­tives and gov­ern­ment invest­ments, and both Tunisia and Turkey have done a fan­tas­tic job,” he added. ​“Their min­istries of agri­cul­ture sup­port the indus­try… Every year, there are more invest­ments in inten­sive and super-inten­sive farms.”

However, some parts of Tunisia and neigh­bor­ing Morocco received exces­sive rain­fall. As a result, pro­duc­tion is expected to remain below aver­age in Morocco.

Kaljevic esti­mated that North Africa’s sec­ond-largest olive oil pro­ducer would yield between 100,000 and 120,000 tons, well below the aver­age of 160,000 tons.

Along with Morocco, Kaljevic con­firmed that pro­duc­tion is expected to fall in Italy, pri­mar­ily due to pro­duc­ers enter­ing an ​‘off-year’ and some extreme weather.

Meanwhile, pro­duc­tion in Greece is expected to dou­ble from last year’s lows to between 250,000 and 280,000 tons.

Portuguese pro­duc­ers also antic­i­pate a bet­ter yield – between 170,000 and 190,000 tons – due to favor­able cli­matic con­di­tions and many trees enter­ing an ​‘on-year.’

According to Kaljevic, olive oil pro­duc­tion in Syria is also antic­i­pated to rebound, reach­ing 140,000 tons.

Filippo Berio pur­chases lam­pante olive oil from mills in the north­west of the coun­try, cur­rently occu­pied by Turkey, refines it in Italy and blends it with vir­gin and extra vir­gin olive oil to be sold as ​‘pure’ or ​‘extra light’ olive oil.

“Certainly, there is an ongo­ing issue regard­ing secu­rity and the civil war, but the gov­ern­ment is pro­tect­ing the agri­cul­ture,” he said. ​“Despite the eco­nomic issues and the civil war, they are invest­ing in olive oil.”

As a result of the pro­duc­tion rebound, Kaljevic antic­i­pates olive oil prices at ori­gin to fall by the begin­ning of 2025 as olive oil stocks are rapidly replen­ished.

“If the num­ber of 3.2 mil­lion met­ric tons is con­firmed after the first two months of har­vest­ing, I expect that the price will go below €5 in January,” he said.

Indeed, some for­ward buy­ing con­tracts for the first…