New Delhi, India – When Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets any male world leader, a bear hug is almost inevitable. Yet his embrace last week with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow has stirred firm public pushback from both Washington and Kyiv.
In a series of statements over several days, US officials criticised Modi’s visit to Russia, the first since Putin launched a full-scale war on Ukraine in February 2022.
The US National Security adviser cautioned that strong ties with Russia were a “bad bet” for India. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the US was concerned about India’s relations with Russia. And Eric Garcetti, the US ambassador to India, warned New Delhi that it could not take its friendship with Washington “for granted”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was more direct. He referred to the deadly missile attack on Ukraine’s largest children’s hospital the day before Modi’s Moscow visit. “It is a huge disappointment and a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day,” he wrote on X.
In Ukraine today, 37 people were killed, three of whom were children, and 170 were injured, including 13 children, as a result of Russia’s brutal missile strike.
A Russian missile struck the largest children’s hospital in Ukraine, targeting young cancer patients. Many were… pic.twitter.com/V1k7PEz2rJ
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) July 8, 2024
So, did India miscalculate the geopolitical response to Modi’s trip? Has the visit to Moscow and the public show of warmth towards Putin damaged India’s relations with the US? And why do ties with Russia matter enough for India to take that gamble after years of investing in relations with the US?
Analysts say the answer lies in a combination of history, New Delhi’s confidence in its ability to juggle multiple complex relations and a bet that former US President Donald Trump might well return to power and soften Washington’s tough stance against Russia.
‘My friend Donald Trump’
On Saturday, after a sniper positioned on a roof outside a Trump rally in Pennsylvania struck the former president with a bullet, killing another person and wounding two others, a volley of reactions tumbled in from around the world.
Among them was an X post by Modi, who condemned the attack, describing Trump as “my friend”. The two leaders had a few years ago held joint public events in Houston and the Indian city of Ahmedabad, and a senior Indian government official told this writer the Modi administration was increasingly convinced that Trump might return to power in November.
The ex-president leads incumbent Joe Biden in polls in several swing states and the image of Trump rising after being shot, fist in the air, blood streaking down his face, is expected to solidify his advantage over Biden.
“The election to the post of US president seems a foregone conclusion for Donald Trump and PM Modi will be happy about it,” the Indian official said.
One way a Trump win would help India, analysts say, is by easing the pressure on New Delhi to turn away from Moscow.
“A second Trump administration, almost certainly, will care less about the optics of Russia-India ties,” said Christopher Clary, an assistant professor in political science at the University of Albany and a non-resident fellow with the Washington-based Stimson Center’s South Asia programme.
In his first term as president, Trump focused US strategic attention on Washington’s rivalry with Beijing, rather than on Moscow – a worldview that is in sync with India’s. New Delhi too views Beijing as its principal threat.
A fine balance
To be sure, India-Russia relations have a long history of their own. A legatee of the Soviet Union with which India enjoyed close relations during the Cold War, Russia has maintained ties with New Delhi.
Historically, it has been the biggest supplier of weapons and other defence equipment to India – from the MIG and Sukhoi fighter jets to, more recently, the S-400 anti-missile defence systems.
Since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, India has also dramatically ramped up its purchase of Russian crude….
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