Trying to buy a house is ‘playing a game you can’t win’

When Nathan Wilkins moved back in with his mother and sister in 2019, he hoped it would help him save money to buy a home.

But in the years since, the US housing market has been transformed by rising rents, surging home prices, and a massive jump in mortgage rates, making homeownership seem ever more impossible.

He and his sister are making more money than ever, the 32-year-old insurance adjuster from Utah says. But shelling out $2,500 (£1,960) a month in rent doesn’t leave much left over.

“It’s like I’m playing a game that you can’t win,” he says. “The fact that we’re being priced out just makes me want to throw up.”

Such frustrations are spreading, fuelling dissatisfaction and contributing to the widespread pessimism about the US economy that is looming over the country’s upcoming election.

The median home sale price in the US has jumped by nearly 30% since the end of 2019, hitting $420,000 this spring.

And that’s not factoring in the added costs from higher interest rates, which now stand at roughly 7% for the 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage that is typical in the US, up from about 3% in 2020.

Homebuyers today need an annual income of more than $100,000 – well above the country’s household median of about $75,000 – to comfortably afford a home in most places in the US, research firms such as Zillow and Bankrate say, and face monthly payments that have roughly doubled in just four years.

“It makes me cry a bit,” says Megan Holter, who started looking to buy in Austin, Texas, back in 2019, when banks were offering her a 30-year fixed rate of about 4.75%.

She halted her search when the pandemic hit, priced out by the surging cost of building materials and homes.

She and her wife finally bought a home this year, but only after swallowing a 6.625% rate – and moving 1,200 miles north to Columbus, Ohio, a spot selected from a spreadsheet she created of cities with lower costs.

“Housing affordability was the number one thing that we’ve been considering for five years,” says the 30-year-old, who also switched jobs from the public sector to the private sector to make homebuying happen.

“We have moved mountains to make it possible.

“I’m just eternally grateful that we can afford it. I know a lot of other people cannot,” she adds.

Just 40.1% of renters expect to ever own a home one day, according to the New York Federal Reserve, the smallest share since the bank started asking renters the question in 2014.

Even homeowners, whose long-term mortgages shield them from immediate financial impact and who benefit from rising property values, tell pollsters that the changes in the market are a source of concern – as they push up property taxes and insurance costs, while making moving a less affordable prospect.

A recent Harris poll found more than 70% of Americans believe the market is only going to get worse.

The issue is feeding into wider worries about rising living costs, which have jumped 20% since 2021.

It is among the biggest challenges facing President Joe Biden, whose time in office has coincided with the housing market’s transformation and who receives dismal ratings for his handling of the economy in national polls.

Challenger Donald Trump, who fares better, has sought to blame Mr Biden for inflation, and though he does not typically call out housing specifically, he regularly spotlights “skyrocketing” interest rates to argue that the economy is heading in the wrong direction.

“Inflation has been a political noose for Biden in recent years,” says Brian Connolly, professor of business law at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business, whose work focuses on housing issues. “Housing costs are another place where people are experiencing this financial squeeze.”

In recent months, the White House has tried to address concerns about affordability head on, offering proposals such as rules to limit closing costs and a $10,000 tax credit for first time homebuyers.

It marks a shift in tone, after years of focusing on the economy’s strengths, including low unemployment. But with few immediate levers for Mr Biden to pull, it’s not clear the efforts are resonating.

His support has especially eroded among younger people – whose record turnout in 2020 helped put him in office. Voters in this demographic are least likely to own homes and most likely to see housing affordability as a top concern.

“I don’t see any platform that purposely looks out for somebody like first-time homebuyers, wanting to ease their pain,” says Braiden Dogherty, a…