The CDU operating rate of China state-owned refineries is expected to rebound in July, and the yield of refined oil will refresh several records, as per OilChem survey.
China’s state-owned refineries are projected to face a monthly rise of 4.25% in their planned crude throughput in July at 41,445,000 tonnes, down 5.39% year on year, according to the latest survey by OilChem. The corresponding CDU capacity utilization rates are estimated to rise 0.67 percentage points month on month to 75.75% on average in July and down 4.19 percentage points year on year, which will be possible to cease the third consecutive month of decrease, due to fewer maintenance plans and the estimate of demand improvement.
Crude Throughput and Operating Rate of China State-owned Refineries
Source: OilChem
Six refineries have planned to undergo maintenance in July, up one month on month. The CDU capacities involved in maintenance will be 38.50 million tonnes/year, down 500,000 t/y month on month. The crude throughput loss will total 1.77 million tonnes, down 650,000 tonnes month on month. 22 refineries might raise their operating rates due to the estimate of demand improvement, and the maintenance-triggered production loss will decrease, so the monthly operating rate of state-owned refineries will cease the three months of consecutive declines.
Refined Oil Yield of China State-owned Refineries
Source: OilChem
Refined Oil Yield of China State-owned Refineries (Unit: percentage points)
|
Item |
Jul E, 2024 |
MoM |
|
Refined Oil |
60.10% |
0.67 |
|
Gasoline |
25.21% |
0.71 |
|
Gasoil |
23.02% |
-0.39 |
|
Kerosene |
11.87% |
0.34 |
Source: OilChem
Gasoline yield will rise for four straight months due to rising trip frequency, gasoline yield will drag down by soft demand for three consecutive months, and that of kerosene will climb for the third consecutive month in the wake of the recovery of flight. Furthermore, the gasoil yield is anticipated to refresh its record low while the kerosene yield might create its record high, and the gasoil/gasoline production rate will hit a new low.
Refined Oil Monthly Production of China State-owned Refineries
Source: OilChem
Refined Oil Monthly Production of China State-owned Refineries (Unit: ‘000 tonnes)
|
Item |
Jul E, 2024 |
Jun, 2024 |
Jul, 2023 |
MoM |
YoY |
|
Refined Oil Production |
24,908.10 |
23,627.90 |
26,552.00 |
5.42% |
-6.19% |
|
Gasoline Production |
10,448.30 |
9,738.50 |
10,573.10 |
7.29% |
-1.18% |
|
Gasoil Production |
9,539.40 |
9,304.90 |
11,328.20 |
2.52% |
-15.79% |
|
4,920.40 |
4,584.50 |
4,650.80 |
7.33% |
5.80% |
Source: OilChem
The rising CDU operating rate will boost the refined oil production in July. The increase in kerosene will be largest, followed by gasoline, complying with the market demand in the third quarter.
The oil refining capacity of state-owned refineries accounts for 61% in China, and the rising supply of state-owned refineries will directly push up total domestic supply in July. According to the estimate of OilChem, the overall operating rate of domestic refineries will gain by 1.30 percentage points to 69.25%, and the production of gasoline, gasoil and kerosene will rise by 6.59%, 4.37% and 4.54%, respectively.
The gasoline consumption aroused by private car travel and automobile air-condition demand in summer vacation will constantly benefit the domestic gasoline market in July, while gasoil demand will be constantly restricted by sluggish outdoor construction, fishing off season and the rainy season in southern China.
Written by Ariel Guo, gq@oilchem.net
Edited by Navy Liu, liuchuanjun@mysteel.com
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