“He’s gotten himself down to a Catch-22,” said Rep. Kevin Hern (R-Okla.), who chairs the largest ideological faction of conservatives, the Republican Study Committee.
The next two weeks are the most critical of Johnson’s nearly six–month tenure atop a very wobbly House with a majority that continues to narrow. His chief priority is passing a bill funding Ukraine that also sends aid to Israel and Indo-Pacific allies. Unlike a national security package that passed the Senate, House Republicans across the ideological spectrum insist that any foreign aid deal must also include measures that strengthen U.S. borders.
But the shape of that package will be fiercely debated and a route to passage is unpredictable and murky. With just a two-vote majority, Republicans have been unable to achieve consensus on such divisive issues, angering a far-right desperate for ideological purity. Choosing a bipartisan route is also complicated: getting lawmakers to agree on anything related to Ukraine and Israel, especially with outrage mounting about civilian casualties in Gaza, is an almost impossible task, given the partisanship and anger in today’s House.
Meanwhile, the House is expected to take up a measure by Friday to reauthorize the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act before an April 19 deadline. But that measure has already torn Republicans apart, resulting in leadership pulling a December vote as far-right members and national security hawks sparred over requiring a warrant to review communications sent by Americans swept up in surveillance of foreign actors by U.S. spy agencies. GOP leadership plans to bring the warrant question to the floor this week, where its failure could further irritate the flanks of each party.
Another speakership fight seven months before the elections would only further expose the chronic disarray in the House Republican Conference and the difficulty it has had in governing. Many House Republicans acknowledge their inability to agree on passing anything — whether narrow messaging bills that will not become law or more substantive legislation — may harm their quest to stay in and expand their majority.
If Johnson turns to Democrats, that likely means he would again bypass the Rules Committee — dominated by Republicans, including three from the far-right eager to block legislation — and turn to the so-called suspension calendar in which he would need two-thirds of the House for legislation to be adopted.
Dangling above all this is Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s (R-Ga.) threat to oust Johnson from the speakership if he puts any bill sending money to Ukraine on the House floor, which is all but inevitable as the speaker has made clear the United States will aid the foreign ally in its fight against Russia.
Greene said in an interview she does not want to throw “our entire conference into pain and chaos again” by expediting a move to vacate the speakership and forcing the House to vote on whether to oust Johnson within two legislative days.
Nonetheless, she said: “Mike Johnson cannot be Speaker of the House because … not only has he betrayed our conference, he’s betrayed the values, the morals, the ethics, the principles of Republican voters all across the country,” adding, “We are a ship adrift at sea with no captain because our captain has left us. He has abandoned us and become the speaker for the Democrats.”
In a statement, Johnson said he “respects Marjorie” and acknowledged they “do have honest differences on strategy sometimes but share the same conservative beliefs.” The two were supposed to speak Friday, but neither team confirmed whether they ultimately connected.
Rep. Chip Roy (R-Tex.) — a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus — declined to endorse or rule out supporting Greene’s threat, saying he’s focused on working with Johnson to figure out a path to strengthen the U.S.-Mexico border. But he also warned that it “would be a complete failure to put Ukraine on the floor without dealing with the border.”
Rep. Dusty Johnson (R-S.D.), who chairs the conservative Main Street Caucus, called the motion to vacate “a terrible threat” looming over a speaker “who is honestly trying to figure out a way forward.”
“There is a 100 percent chance that after the motion to…
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