Antimony has probably been inescapable to most of you towards the end of last week as the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) announced a new series of export restrictions which came into place on 15th August. As always, Western media went into overdrive. There is hardly anything new happening with the restrictions to what we have seen with germanium, gallium (see my commentary in Bloomberg last year) and graphite. Some have misinterpreted this as an immediate ban, with the usual panic and buying ensuing. To clarify, this is not a ban on exports, but the CCP tightening its grip on the private sector, ensuring that companies must first obtain a license. Why the additional bureaucracy you may ask? Two reasons:
- Ensuring that antimony refined in China services the domestic market only rather than being exported and pushing up prices domestically is part of a wider manufacturing strategy for China to remain price-competitive.
- Knowing who is exporting where and in what quantities is a strategic mapping exercise to get better acquainted with one’s enemies’ weaknesses. In my humble opinion, every so often a new metal will make the headlines as the CCP continues to map out where it can strike the US and its allies most effectively, should the need arise.
See Reuter’s reporting on this. The most comprehensive and non-sensational take has been by Project Blue’s Jack Bedder.
Other “experts” have let themselves run wild with their imaginations. CSIS suggested that the US should pursue tapping into Tajikistan’s antimony. One needs to know little of geopolitics to point out why that would be such folly. Between strong Russian ties (Russia is Tajikistan’s largest trading partner) and being in China’s pocket (in 2011 Tajikistan ceded 4% of its land to China as part of a long-standing border dispute), and no easy export routes via Western-friendly nations… I’ll let you make your own conclusions about basing US security on access to Tajikistan’s antimony. Xi Jinping graced Dushanbe with his presence only last month. More here.
China won the Olympics
A picture has been circulating on X which has allegedly been floating around Chinese social media and communications apps. “Chinese media declared China the winner of the 2024 Olympics, by considering Taiwanese medals as Chinese medals.” Make your own conclusions.
If you want a good cackle at CCP propaganda in action – watch this.
“Where is the former Foreign Minister of China?”
“Somewhere in China, you will never see him.”
The West’s critical mineral policy is putting the cart before the horse
After panicking about rare earths, graphite, gallium and gadolinium, geopolitics pundits are busy brushing up on antimony, the latest critical mineral to fall subject to Chinese export controls. But to ascribe every tweak to Chinese industrial policy as a salvo in an ongoing trade war with the West is to misunderstand Beijing’s actual priorities. What is worse, paranoia over China is pushing Western policymakers into an incoherent “mining first” strategy that will do nothing to actually build lasting global supply chains.
Gadolinium is a rare earth…
Paranoia it may well be, but China chose its path as illustrated by Document No. 9. China does not see the US as a friend, and the entire West is led by the US as the offspring of crumbled empires.
Most other rare earth projects outside China have failed because they failed to develop similar relationships with buyers, focusing instead of hyping up political panic over-reliance on China.
Yes and no. It is true that Western miners rarely, until recently, thought of courting buyers. But then again, as the West offshored – those buyers were mostly in the Far East. Many have also failed as they were peddling crap projects or had clueless technical teams and directors intent only on mining stock exchanges. Then there is the difficulty of attracting finance before most people even heard of rare earths…
At first glance the Chinese government’s decision to restrict antimony exports looks like a case of mineral diplomacy, hitting out at Western economies by starving them of a critical metal. But on closer examination, the theory falls apart. Chinese domestic antimony mining has been in steep decline in recent years, as resources are exhausted. As a result, Chinese refiners have increasingly been sources of ore overseas, from Russia, Myanmar, and elsewhere.
Only an idiot would think restrictions are the same as bans…so starving the West of anything is a stretch. One can only assume there is a typo in there somewhere, but the author is not too far off. China’s demand has increased while mine production has been declining. If you can’t mine it at home, you have to naturally import…