But that idea landed with a thud during Blinken’s visit to Israel, where Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has vowed never to allow the creation of a Palestinian state and his ministers have belittled the Biden administration’s approach to the long-running territorial conflict.
“Secretary Blinken, it’s not the time to speak softly with Hamas, it’s time to use that big stick,” Israel’s minister for national security, Itamar Ben Gvir, posted on social media during Blinken’s visit.
While acknowledging the huge gaps between the two sides, U.S. officials said Blinken’s discussions with Arab leaders went into far more depth and detail than during his previous three trips to the region since the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that killed about 1,200 Israelis.
“What was different about this trip is that on our previous trips here, I think there was a reluctance to talk about some of the ‘day after’ issues … but now we’re finding that our partners are very focused on wanting to engage on those questions,” Blinken told reporters before boarding a plane back to Washington.
In an early December meeting in Dubai, for instance, Arab leaders pushed back on Blinken’s attempts to discuss Gaza’s post-Hamas future, insisting instead that the United States pressure Israel to implement an immediate cease-fire.
Now Arab leaders have shown a willingness to engage on what their roles might be in helping usher in a “revitalized” Palestinian Authority that brings new and younger faces into the government headed by 88-year-old President Mahmoud Abbas.
Abbas, who has led the authority for years, is widely viewed by Palestinians as corrupt and out of touch with the needs of everyday people. Senior Jordanian and Egyptian officials in recent days have discussed advising Abbas to consider bowing out in favor of the next generation of Palestinian leaders, though it is unclear whether Abbas would accept that.
There are limits to how much trust Arab leaders will place in Washington as its top Middle East ally lays waste to whole neighborhoods and residential buildings in Gaza in a relentless campaign to eliminate Hamas.
Israeli attacks killed almost 250 Gazans in the 24 hours before Blinken’s arrival in Israel, making it one of the deadliest days for Palestinians in a conflict that has already claimed more than 23,000 lives, according to local health authorities. Lawyers representing South Africa have accused Israel of committing genocide and appealed to the United Nations’ top court to stop to the military operation. Israel and the United States both oppose the effort.
“Most Arab leaders are extremely skeptical about U.S. plans for post-conflict stabilization in Gaza,” said Hussein Ibish, a Middle East expert at the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “There are real doubts about the U.S. ability to restrain Israel.”
In Israel, where the Biden administration has expedited the transfer of billions of dollars in powerful bombs, guns and munitions, in some cases bypassing congressional review, U.S. largesse has done little to soften opposition to U.S. proposals.
The two sides remain opposed on a range of issues, including when Palestinians can return to northern Gaza and when the Palestinian Authority can receive its tax revenue collected by Israel. Bigger issues such as agreeing on a path to a Palestinian state, a key demand for Arab and U.S. postwar planning, appear more remote than ever.
“This coalition certainly will not endorse a two-state solution even verbally,” said Natan Sachs, an Israel expert at the Brookings Institution, referring to Israel’s governing coalition that includes far-right politicians.
But he cautioned that U.S. planning could pay off if a different Israeli government comes to power — a possibility given widespread domestic criticism of Netanyahu’s handling of the conflict. “It’s important to remember that this coalition may not last past 2024,” Sachs said.
But the promise of a new Israeli government sometime in the future is little relief for Palestinians in southern Gaza, especially…
Read More: Blinken-Abbas meeting takeaways on Gaza’s future, Palestinian statehood