As president, Trump put Germany and the rest of NATO on notice: The United States would no longer tolerate their failure to contribute adequately to our common defense. And by the time he left office, allies were spending $130 billion more on defense than they did in 2016 and had pledged to increase that figure to $400 billion by the end of 2024.
Well, 2024 has arrived, and NATO data shows that non-U.S. members are projected to spend $510 billion more than they did in 2016 (excluding Finland and Sweden, which were not members in 2016 and whose entire defense budgets now count toward European totals).
That means almost 80 percent of the new spending by those countries is due to commitments made during Trump’s presidency. The rest can be credited as much to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine as to diplomacy from Biden. In other words, the defense investment success that NATO celebrates this week is primarily a Trump achievement.
In the wake of Biden’s disastrous debate performance last month and historically low public approval, it seems increasingly likely that Trump will reassume the presidency and thus leadership of the NATO alliance again come January. That would be good news for NATO — because any fair-minded assessment of the records of the two U.S. presidents shows clearly that it is Trump, not Biden, who is the better candidate to reshape the alliance to meet the threats of this century. Far from eviscerating the Atlantic alliance, Trump left it militarily stronger than it has been at any time since the Cold War. In a second term, he would have the opportunity not just to further strengthen NATO, but to fundamentally transform it.
How might Trump put his stamp on NATO if he wins in November? These six planks can form a Trump NATO agenda that builds on the accomplishments of his first term.
1
Raise the NATO spending floor from 2 to 3 percent of GDP.
The world is on fire. Wars are raging on two continents. Russia, China, Iran and North Korea are forming interlocking strategic partnerships with which to threaten America and its democratic allies. As Gen. Christopher G. Cavoli, the supreme allied commander in Europe, recently told Congress, these developments represent a threat “more cohesive and dangerous than any threat the United States has faced in decades.”
In the face of this threat, spending just 2 percent of GDP on defense is no longer sufficient. When he took office, Trump told allies they should double their defense spending to 4 percent of GDP. That might be a bridge too far for most allies. But Polish President Andrzej Duda recently proposed raising NATO’s defense spending floor to 3 percent of GDP. That is achievable. At the height of the Cold War, non-U.S. NATO members spent an average of 3.5 percent of GDP on defense. There is no reason they couldn’t do the same today.
2
Enshrine the new spending levels in the North Atlantic Treaty.
It took almost two decades for most NATO allies to meet their 2 percent spending commitment. And even now — despite witnessing the first major land invasion in Europe since World War II — more than a quarter are still projected to fall short. That is unacceptable.
The only way to change this is to impose real consequences for shirking spending commitments. Trump should insist that all allies make a binding pledge to carry their weight. Just as he renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement, he should demand that the North Atlantic Treaty be amended to include a 3 percent minimum defense spending requirement so that it carries the same weight as the principle of collective defense enshrined in Article 5.
Doing so would strengthen NATO’s deterrence, not weaken it. If all NATO nations meet the new higher defense investments, NATO will be the most…