Dangers Ahead in the South China Sea

SUBSCRIBER+ EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS — With all the attention being paid to Taiwan at the moment, the long-simmering situation in the South China Sea doesn’t always get the attention that it deserves. That’s changing after a spate of close calls and violent run-ins in the critical waterway, primarily involving China and the Philippines. 

BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT

This month the two nations traded accusations over a collision between a Chinese coast guard ship and a Philippine supply vessel near the Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing said the Philippine ship had “illegally intruded” into the area and “deliberately and dangerously” approached the Chinese vessel; Manila, which calls the waterway the West Philippine Sea, described the incident as a “brutal assault” by the Chinese. The Philippine government released footage that showed the Chinese boat ram the Philippine vessel. Philippine officials said Chinese crew members armed with spears and knives boarded their vessel, and that several Filipinos were injured in the incident, including one sailor who lost his thumb.

On Friday, China demanded that the U.S. stop supporting “provocations” by the Philippines, after the U.S. expressed concern over China’s “destabilizing actions in the South China Sea.”

Past incidents in the South China Sea have included instances of China firing water cannons at Philippine boats and a mission by a Filipino civilian flotilla to sail to a disputed shoal. Other Southeast Asian nations – Vietnam in particular – have challenged Chinese claims in the contested waters as well. 

The competing claims involve both sovereignty and competition over natural resources, and for more than a decade, China has carried out a major military buildup on various contested small islands. As The Cipher Brief has reported, experts and officials are now warning that tensions in the South China Sea may spark a wider conflict. 

In the wake of the latest incident, The Cipher Brief turned to three experts to assess the risks. Writer Ethan Masucol spoke with Rear Admiral Rommel Jude Ong, former Vice Commander of the Philippine Navy; and Managing Editor Tom Nagorski spoke with a pair of Cipher Brief experts – Ambassador Joseph DeTrani, a former CIA Director of East Asia Operations, and Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. 

From their different vantage points, all three warned that the risks of escalation are great, and that a 73-year-old mutual defense treaty might draw in the U.S. 

“If China physically attacks a treaty ally of the United States,” Montgomery said. “It’s going to put us in a very tough position because this isn’t like Ukraine and Russia, where Ukraine was not a treaty ally. This becomes a credibility issue for the United States.”

THE CONTEXT

• A Chinese coast guard ship rammed a Philippine boat attempting to supply a garrison of Filipino troops on the Sierra Madre, a grounded warship on the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. The atoll is within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone.
• Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos, Jr. said Manila will not yield to “any foreign power,” but will not start a war. He added that the Philippines must “do more” than just protest China’s increasingly aggressive actions in the South China Sea.
• The U.S. condemned China’s “escalatory and irresponsible” actions in the South China Sea and reaffirmed support for Manila.
• The Philippines and the U.S. have a Mutual Defense Treaty, signed in 1951. Updated by recent Bilateral Defense Guidelines, the treaty reaffirms that an armed attack in the Pacific against either country’s armed forces will invoke mutual defense commitments.
• Marcos Jr.’s advisors said the Philippines will not invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty in response to the latest Second Thomas Shoal incident. 
• In April 2023, the U.S. and Philippines agreed to expand their Enhanced Defense Cooperation Arrangement, giving the U.S. military access to four additional military sites in the Philippines, to a total of nine.

THE EXPERTS

Rear Adm. (Ret.) Rommel Jude G. Ong

Rear Admiral Rommel Jude G. Ong retired in 2019 as Vice Commander of the Philippines Navy. He previously commanded Naval Forces West, Naval Task Forces 11 and 80, Naval Intelligence Security Force, and three commissioned naval vessels. He is currently serving as Professor of Praxis with Ateneo School of Government in Manila. He is a graduate of the Philippines Military Academy, the National Defense College of the Philippines, and the U.S. Naval War College.

Joseph DeTrani, Former Special Envoy for Six-Party Talks with North Korea

Ambassador DeTrani served as the U.S. Representative to the Korea Energy Development…